Last week produced a 1-1 week, winning the bigger play, which produced a profit of +0.8%.
Like last week, I want to talk about a couple of situations, which exist for the Super Bowl. Last week I told you the better defensive team (team who allowed fewer points during the regular season) was 46-18-2 ats since 1970 in the Championship game. That record is now 47-19-2 since 1970 and in the 34 years of Championship games since the merger, this situation has produced 17 winning years, 5 losing years and 12 break even years (minus the juice). File this away for next year.
In the SB, that same defensive situation works. It doesn't work as well, producing a record of 20-14-3. That's still 59% winners. That's not enough for me to play a team but is still a solid record. Although, since 1978, the better defensive team is 15-7-3 67%. Advantage New England.
This week, I want to look at the better defensive team, but from a different perspective. One that I think gauges a defense better than just points allowed. It still deals with points allowed but it also looks at their opponent's offensive averages. In other words, for this year, NE is allowing 15 points per game (rounded up or down) against teams averaging 19 points per game on offense. The NE defense is allowing four points less per game than their opponents. Carolina is allowing 19 points per game against teams averaging 19 points per game. Carolina is allowing zero points less per game than their opponents are averaging. This would seem to indicate that NE has the better defense. If we can accept that for this research, we would then find the following for SB games played since 1970. There have been 33 SB's played since 1970. The team with the better defense (using the opponents offensive averages as a gauge) is now 17-9-3 ats 65%. There were four years where both team's defenses were tied. The underdogs in those years were 3-1 ats and straight up. One of those ties was NE two year's ago. The SU record in these games is 23-6 79%. Since 1981, the record improves to 13-3-2 81% ATS and an incredible 17-1 94% SU. And, of those 17 straight up winners, we're talking about four dogs. Those dogs were Washington over Denver in 1987 42-10 as +3.5 point dogs, the NY Giants over Buffalo in 1990 20-19 as +7 point dogs, the Denver Broncos over Green Bay in 1997 31-24 as +11.5 point dogs and Tampa Bay last year over Oakland 48-21 as 3.5 point dogs. Overall, dogs are 4-1 ats with all four winners winning straight up. Advantage New England.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NEW ENGLAND -7 CAROLINA 37.5
Let's first go over the numbers of both of these teams and then we'll talk about the specific match-ups, some myths I have read this week, how I see the game developing and then a few other similar situations, which have taken place over the last 33 Super Bowl's that might be relevant to this game.
NE is averaging 3.4 ypr against teams allowing 4.0 ypr this year for a net of -0.6 ypr. They are averaging 6.0 yps against teams allowing 5.8 yps for a net of +0.2 yps. That translates to 4.8 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl for a net of -0.1 yppl on offense. On defense, NE is allowing 3.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr for a net of +0.5 and allowing 5.0 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps for a net of +0.8 yps. That totals out to allowing 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl for a net of +0.6 yppl.
For Carolina, they are averaging 4.0 ypr against teams allowing 4.2 ypr for a net of -0.2 ypr. They average 6.3 yps against teams allowing 6.1 yps for a net of +0.2 yps. That totals to 5.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl for a net of -0.1 yppl. On defense, they allow 4.0 ypr against teams averaging 4.1 ypr for a net of +0.1 ypr and allow 5.3 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps for a net of +0.5 yps. That totals out to 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl for a net of +0.3 yppl. All of these numbers are for regular season games only.
What we have then is NE averaging 4.8 yppl against 4.9 yppl and Carolina averaging 5.1 yppl against 5.2 yppl. Even though Carolina averages more yards per play, these teams are even on offense because Carolina has played weaker defenses, which have helped them produce better numbers. But, when we compare their numbers to their opponents, we see they are -0.1 yppl below average, just like NE. On defense, NE allows 4.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl and Carolina allows 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Both teams have played offenses that are equal but NE has produced the better numbers from a yards per play perspective. It's interesting to note both teams throw the ball for +0.2 yps better than their opponents defend the pass. But, Carolina runs the ball better, averaging -0.2 ypr worse while NE averages -0.6 yps worse. If both teams throw the ball equally well and Carolina runs the ball better, why are both teams equal when you total up the two offenses? Simply because NE throws the ball about 55 of the time and Carolina throws the ball only about 48% of the time. Therefore, NE accumulates more of their yards through the air because passes average a lot more yards than rushes. During the playoffs, Carolina has run the ball 61% of the time (53% against Dallas - the only good defense they played) and NE has thrown the ball 57% of the time.
Based on these regular season numbers, we could then expect both teams to average about 3.4 ypr. NE could be expected to average about 5.7 yps and Carolina to average about 5.2 yps. For the game, NE would average about 4.7 yppl and Carolina about 4.5 yppl. NE, during the regular season, scored at a higher rate in terms of yards per point than Carolina did. If that continues here, NE would then be favored to win this game by a score of around 23-15. The total yards predicted, based on this, is just about even, but NE (based on the regular season), figures to get in the endzone a little easier than Carolina. During the playoffs, the NE offense has slipped a little, from averaging 14.5 yards point scored during the regular season to 15.8 in the playoffs. Carolina was at 15.8 during the regular season and is at 15.6 in the playoffs. The biggest difference has been on defense, where Carolina is allowing 24.3 in the playoffs, compared with 15.5 during the regular season. I suspect that is because they aren't turning the ball over in the playoffs, which has allowed their defense to defend longer fields and not allow as many points. NE, who was very good during the regular season, has gotten even better in the playoffs, allowing just 21.1 yards per point scored (they allowed 19.7 during the regular season).
Against specific match-ups similar to these two teams this year, this is how each team has fared. Carolina is going to have to run the ball and NE obviously wants to stop the run. As mentioned, NE is allowing 3.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr and is allowing 89 yards per game rushing against teams averaging 112 yards per game rushing. Carolina has played four games against similar competition. Against Dallas they have gained 2.7 ypr on 75 yards and 3.1 ypr on 107 yards. Against Tennessee, they gained 2.6 ypr on 44 yards and against Jacksonville, they gained 4.5 ypr on 122 yards. In all, Carolina gained an average of 87 yards and 3.3 ypr against teams allowing 86 yards and 3.5 ypr. That makes their running game about average to slightly below average against good run defenses. If NE can stop the Carolina rushing game or NE gets a sizable lead, Carolina will have to throw the ball. NE allows 5.0 yps against 5.8 yps and 204 yards passing per game against teams averaging 195 yards per game. Carolina faced six teams with similar characteristics. In those six games, they averaged 6.9 yards per pass against teams allowing only 5.1 yps. Clearly, they were able to throw the ball against these teams. But, interestingly, if you take out five long passes of the 159 they completed (two of which clearly came on a broken coverage or defenders falling down and allowing long gains), they only averaged 5.5 yps against 5.1 yps. They were still above average but the numbers are much more average. I think they will be able to throw some but not necessarily in obvious passing situations. For NE, they faced six teams who either run the ball well or have a run first mentality. They allowed 3.6 ypr against teams who averaged 4.3 ypr and 107 yards per game to teams who averaged 132 yards per game. NE faced seven teams who are above average throwing the ball and they allowed those teams to average 5.9 yps (those teams averaged 6.7 yps) and 259 yards per game (those teams averaged 230 yards per game). Clearly, Carolina struggles to run against good teams and NE has shut down both, good rushing teams and good passing teams. The jury is still out as to how well Carolina can throw the ball against good pass defenses. For NE on offense, they must be able to throw the ball. They have faced six teams who defend the pass well. In those games, they have averaged 6.2 yps against teams who allow 5.2 yps and 230 yards per game against teams allowing 178 yards per game. Carolina has faced eight teams who throw the ball well. In those eight games, they allowed 6.5 yps against teams averaging 6.5 yps and 257 yards per game against teams averaging 235 yards per game. Clearly, NE can still throw the ball against good pass defenses and Carolina is just average in defending the pass.
As I have perused the net these last two weeks, I have seen different things written that I just don't see happening in this game. Now, these are just my opinions and I could be wrong. I have read things pertaining to comparing this Carolina defense to the Tampa Bay defense of last year. I have to respectfully disagree with this statement. Carolina isn't even the best defense in this game. TB allowed 12 points per game last year and Carolina allowed 19 points per game this year. TB allowed 12 points against teams averaging 22 points per game while Carolina is allowing 19 against 19. TB allowed just 4.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl, while Carolina is allowing 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl. During the playoffs, Carolina has allowed 4.5 yppl against 5.1 yppl (NE has allowed 4.5 yppl against 5.6 yppl). So, I don't see any comparison between the two defenses. I have also read that Carolina will be able to run the ball on NE. I suppose this is because people see Carolina averages 4.0 ypr and NE only averages 3.4 ypr so Carolina must be the better rushing team. Well, they are the better rushing team, but when matched up against the opposing defense, these two teams are equal in the running game. Carolina is a BELOW AVERAGE running team. They average 4.0 ypr against teams averaging 4.2 ypr (although 131 yards rushing against teams allowing 121 because of their desire to rush the ball so much). That is not above average, that is below average. Yes, they have run the ball well in the playoffs, but most teams will run the ball well against the Rams and Eagles, who allowed an average of 4.7 ypr this season. Carolina averaged 4.6 ypr against those two teams in the playoffs, which is about average with their season long -0.2 ypr average. I've also seen things written about Carolina playing better on the road than NE. I looked back to each of the last 20 SB's and compared each teams road games and I see nothing that indicates a better performance on the road, which Carolina doesn't even have, leads to winning the SB. Both teams outscored their opponents by about one point on the road during the regular season and Carolina averaged 4.8 yppl on offense and allowed 4.7 yppl on defense, while NE averaged 5.1 yppl on offense and allowed 4.4 yppl on defense. So, actually NE played better on the road, especially when you consider their opponents.
How will this game play out? NE is allowing -0.5 ypr than what their opponents are averaging. Carolina is at -0.2 ypr. That totals -0.7 ypr and when added to the average of all teams in the NFL, which is 4.1 ypr, you get Carolina averaging about 3.4 ypr in this game. NE has been horrible rushing the ball this year, averaging -0.6 ypr, while Carolina has defended the run better than average, allowing -0.1 ypr less. This, again, totals to -0.7 ypr and predicts NE to run the ball for 3.4 ypr, which is equal to Carolina. Now, Carolina would like to run the ball more, so they could end up with more rushing yards because of more attempts, but the averages should be close to equal. During the playoffs, Carolina is averaging 4.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr and NE is allowing 3.6 ypr against 3.5 ypr. NE is averaging 3.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr and Carolina is allowing 4.1 ypr against 4.1 ypr. I think it was rather obvious what NE wanted to achieve against Indy two weeks ago. With Indy's prolific passing attack, they allowed Indy to run the ball more, while trying to take away the Indy passing game. The end result was allowing Indy to rush for 3.9 ypr but only throw for 4.1 yps. NE will approach this game the exact opposite way. Belichick knows he must stop the Carolina rushing game and force Delhomme to beat his team through the air. NE will go all out to stop what Carolina likes to do best. They have done that all year against teams who either rush the ball well or would at least like to rush the ball. I just don't see NE allowing Carolina to run the ball in this game. And, as much respect as I have for Muhammad and Smith, Carolina doesn't have enough weapons at the receiver position to attack NE. A team like Indy has multiple receivers they can throw at you, as does Tennessee, but Carolina only uses two receivers and sometimes three with Ricky Proehl. Those three plus Deshaun Foster represented over 72% of their receptions this year. Carolina has thrown the ball well during the playoffs, but it's much easier to throw the ball when you can run the ball. They have averaged a whopping 8.7 yps in the playoffs against teams allowing 5.3 yps. But, take out the three long passes (70 yards against Dallas when the defender fell down, 57 yards to Muhammad on a long pass and broken coverage, and the 69 yard touchdown pass to Smith to beat the Rams) and they averaged 6.3 yps. More importantly, taking out those two long passes against Dallas (the only good defense they faced) and they averaged just 5.2 yps against a Dallas defense that was allowing 5.0 yps, which brings them right back to their +0.2 yps above average for the year. You might say you can't just take out the plays you like but my point would be NE isn't going to give up those plays. They haven't all year long and I don't see it happening here either. NE will throw the ball just like they have all year long. Carolina will be forced to throw the ball, in my opinion, because NE won't allow anything else. If Carolina is able to get a lead or stay within seven points, they will probably continue to try and pound the ball. If NE can jump out to a lead, which I am sure they will desperately try to do, they will be able to force Carolina into something they don't want to do.
NE qualifies in a SB system that is now 22-1-3 against the spread, including a subset, which is 17-0-2. NE has allowed the fewest points in the league this year. Teams in such a spot have now played in 12 SB's, previous to this year. Those teams are now 10-2 SU, including TB last year. Those teams are 8-2-2 ats. If our leading defensive team has a win percentage of .800 or better, they are 7-0-1 ats and 8-0 SU. NE won 14 games during the regular season, which are two more wins than the next best team. This has happened six times in the history of the SB since the merger in 1970, where one team has dominated the league. Those six teams are now 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS. The lone loss was in 1983 when Washington lost 9-38 to the Raiders. The difference that year was Washington was allowing over 20 points per game. The other five teams allowed less than 17 points per game and went 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS. Those five teams were the 1972 Dolphins (won 14-7), the 1976 Raiders (won 32-14), the 1978 Steelers (won 35-31), the 1985 Bears (won 46-10) and the 1989 49ers (won 55-10). I know, you say all of those teams were dominating those years and NE isn't a dominating team. Tell that to the 1976 Raiders (who scored 350 points during the regular season and allowed 237 points (NE scored 348 and allowed 238). But these teams dominated their playoff games and NE didn't. Tell that to the 1976 Raiders who won 24-21 and 24-7 (NE won 17-14 and 24-14 and dominated the Indy game). Some people will point out this line is just out of whack, but rarely does the line matter in the SB. Out of the 37 SB's played, only three have ended with a team winning but not covering the spread. The likelihood of this game ending up a win for NE but not a cover is low. The average cover by the winning team in the SB is 12.8 points, with a median of 10 points. You better think you're getting at least 10 points of line value to start using the 'value' statement. I've been saying all year that, for me, situations have proven to be more valuable than a perceived wrong line. And, that 22-1-3 (17-0-2 subset) is a much better indicator than what is supposed to be a line of three or four points. If you think NE will win the game SU, and there is plenty of reason based on the numerous situations I have presented here, then there is a good likelihood they will also cover the spread. When I look at the common opponents, I get NE favored by a score of 23-17. When I use yardage, I get NE by a score of 23-15 or 24-15. When I use just road games, I get NE by a score of 21-20. My power ratings show NE by just three points. Again, the situation is a better indicator than the value. The value is clearly split, depending on what you use. The situations greatly favor NE. By the way, for those of you saying Carolina reminds you of the 2001 Patriots, the 22-1-3 situation was on NE that year. Also, NE allowed 17 points per game as did the Rams that year. This year, remember, Carolina is allowing 19 points per game and NE only 15 points per game. That's a big difference. As for the total, it's tough to call. Both teams present below average offenses and above average defenses. That, in and of itself, should make one look to the under. But, Carolina is throwing the ball better, NE likes to throw the ball 55% of the time and it figures that NE will force Carolina to throw the ball more in this game. Lots of passes lead to big plays, clock stoppage and/or turnovers, which can lead to higher scoring games. Against the five teams that can stop the rush, Carolina games have totaled 21, 54, 51, 44 and 39 points. There have been 28 straight SB's, which have totaled 37 or more points, which also makes it tough to take the under. There have been a few that have ended at 37, which is a key number, but knowing that teams get desperate when down, which leads to turnovers and scores, makes it very tough to take the under here. My final points suggest closer to around 38-40 points and favor NE by 6-9 points, before accounting for the 22-1-3 situation they qualify in. I just don't see Carolina being able to score enough points here. NE and Belichick won't stop passing the ball until they have the game well in hand and even then they may have to continue to throw because it isn't likely they will be able to run the ball. If the total would slip to below 37, I may consider going over. Remember, it's just another game and wager number 114 for me this season. Nothing more, nothing less. NEW ENGLAND 27 CAROLINA 14
I may come back on Sunday with any props that I like for this game. Also, I have been asked if I handicap basketball. I don't during the regular season but have handicapped the NCAA Tournament for the last eight years. I have developed a totals system that I use, which has won the money in seven out of eight years (some sides too). I am currently working on putting together my college basketball database for the regular season and conference tournaments. That is a huge project but if I get it done before the end of the season, I would start handicapping the conference tournaments (which is my goal). So, look for me definitely by the NCAA Tournament and possibly by the conference tournaments. I've enjoyed sharing information with everybody this past football season and hopefully I've been able to help along the way. I know the information I've read on these boards has helped me.
BEST BETS
YTD 59-49-5 +11.00%
2% NEW ENGLAND -7 (No higher than -7 - I don't normally buy off the 7 but for just one game, I would spend the extra juice and buy this down to 6.5 if you have to. I did it in 1999 for the Rams and it paid off)
[This message was edited by Sixth Sense on February 01, 2004 at 02:24 PM.]
Like last week, I want to talk about a couple of situations, which exist for the Super Bowl. Last week I told you the better defensive team (team who allowed fewer points during the regular season) was 46-18-2 ats since 1970 in the Championship game. That record is now 47-19-2 since 1970 and in the 34 years of Championship games since the merger, this situation has produced 17 winning years, 5 losing years and 12 break even years (minus the juice). File this away for next year.
In the SB, that same defensive situation works. It doesn't work as well, producing a record of 20-14-3. That's still 59% winners. That's not enough for me to play a team but is still a solid record. Although, since 1978, the better defensive team is 15-7-3 67%. Advantage New England.
This week, I want to look at the better defensive team, but from a different perspective. One that I think gauges a defense better than just points allowed. It still deals with points allowed but it also looks at their opponent's offensive averages. In other words, for this year, NE is allowing 15 points per game (rounded up or down) against teams averaging 19 points per game on offense. The NE defense is allowing four points less per game than their opponents. Carolina is allowing 19 points per game against teams averaging 19 points per game. Carolina is allowing zero points less per game than their opponents are averaging. This would seem to indicate that NE has the better defense. If we can accept that for this research, we would then find the following for SB games played since 1970. There have been 33 SB's played since 1970. The team with the better defense (using the opponents offensive averages as a gauge) is now 17-9-3 ats 65%. There were four years where both team's defenses were tied. The underdogs in those years were 3-1 ats and straight up. One of those ties was NE two year's ago. The SU record in these games is 23-6 79%. Since 1981, the record improves to 13-3-2 81% ATS and an incredible 17-1 94% SU. And, of those 17 straight up winners, we're talking about four dogs. Those dogs were Washington over Denver in 1987 42-10 as +3.5 point dogs, the NY Giants over Buffalo in 1990 20-19 as +7 point dogs, the Denver Broncos over Green Bay in 1997 31-24 as +11.5 point dogs and Tampa Bay last year over Oakland 48-21 as 3.5 point dogs. Overall, dogs are 4-1 ats with all four winners winning straight up. Advantage New England.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NEW ENGLAND -7 CAROLINA 37.5
Let's first go over the numbers of both of these teams and then we'll talk about the specific match-ups, some myths I have read this week, how I see the game developing and then a few other similar situations, which have taken place over the last 33 Super Bowl's that might be relevant to this game.
NE is averaging 3.4 ypr against teams allowing 4.0 ypr this year for a net of -0.6 ypr. They are averaging 6.0 yps against teams allowing 5.8 yps for a net of +0.2 yps. That translates to 4.8 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl for a net of -0.1 yppl on offense. On defense, NE is allowing 3.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr for a net of +0.5 and allowing 5.0 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps for a net of +0.8 yps. That totals out to allowing 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl for a net of +0.6 yppl.
For Carolina, they are averaging 4.0 ypr against teams allowing 4.2 ypr for a net of -0.2 ypr. They average 6.3 yps against teams allowing 6.1 yps for a net of +0.2 yps. That totals to 5.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl for a net of -0.1 yppl. On defense, they allow 4.0 ypr against teams averaging 4.1 ypr for a net of +0.1 ypr and allow 5.3 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps for a net of +0.5 yps. That totals out to 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl for a net of +0.3 yppl. All of these numbers are for regular season games only.
What we have then is NE averaging 4.8 yppl against 4.9 yppl and Carolina averaging 5.1 yppl against 5.2 yppl. Even though Carolina averages more yards per play, these teams are even on offense because Carolina has played weaker defenses, which have helped them produce better numbers. But, when we compare their numbers to their opponents, we see they are -0.1 yppl below average, just like NE. On defense, NE allows 4.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl and Carolina allows 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Both teams have played offenses that are equal but NE has produced the better numbers from a yards per play perspective. It's interesting to note both teams throw the ball for +0.2 yps better than their opponents defend the pass. But, Carolina runs the ball better, averaging -0.2 ypr worse while NE averages -0.6 yps worse. If both teams throw the ball equally well and Carolina runs the ball better, why are both teams equal when you total up the two offenses? Simply because NE throws the ball about 55 of the time and Carolina throws the ball only about 48% of the time. Therefore, NE accumulates more of their yards through the air because passes average a lot more yards than rushes. During the playoffs, Carolina has run the ball 61% of the time (53% against Dallas - the only good defense they played) and NE has thrown the ball 57% of the time.
Based on these regular season numbers, we could then expect both teams to average about 3.4 ypr. NE could be expected to average about 5.7 yps and Carolina to average about 5.2 yps. For the game, NE would average about 4.7 yppl and Carolina about 4.5 yppl. NE, during the regular season, scored at a higher rate in terms of yards per point than Carolina did. If that continues here, NE would then be favored to win this game by a score of around 23-15. The total yards predicted, based on this, is just about even, but NE (based on the regular season), figures to get in the endzone a little easier than Carolina. During the playoffs, the NE offense has slipped a little, from averaging 14.5 yards point scored during the regular season to 15.8 in the playoffs. Carolina was at 15.8 during the regular season and is at 15.6 in the playoffs. The biggest difference has been on defense, where Carolina is allowing 24.3 in the playoffs, compared with 15.5 during the regular season. I suspect that is because they aren't turning the ball over in the playoffs, which has allowed their defense to defend longer fields and not allow as many points. NE, who was very good during the regular season, has gotten even better in the playoffs, allowing just 21.1 yards per point scored (they allowed 19.7 during the regular season).
Against specific match-ups similar to these two teams this year, this is how each team has fared. Carolina is going to have to run the ball and NE obviously wants to stop the run. As mentioned, NE is allowing 3.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr and is allowing 89 yards per game rushing against teams averaging 112 yards per game rushing. Carolina has played four games against similar competition. Against Dallas they have gained 2.7 ypr on 75 yards and 3.1 ypr on 107 yards. Against Tennessee, they gained 2.6 ypr on 44 yards and against Jacksonville, they gained 4.5 ypr on 122 yards. In all, Carolina gained an average of 87 yards and 3.3 ypr against teams allowing 86 yards and 3.5 ypr. That makes their running game about average to slightly below average against good run defenses. If NE can stop the Carolina rushing game or NE gets a sizable lead, Carolina will have to throw the ball. NE allows 5.0 yps against 5.8 yps and 204 yards passing per game against teams averaging 195 yards per game. Carolina faced six teams with similar characteristics. In those six games, they averaged 6.9 yards per pass against teams allowing only 5.1 yps. Clearly, they were able to throw the ball against these teams. But, interestingly, if you take out five long passes of the 159 they completed (two of which clearly came on a broken coverage or defenders falling down and allowing long gains), they only averaged 5.5 yps against 5.1 yps. They were still above average but the numbers are much more average. I think they will be able to throw some but not necessarily in obvious passing situations. For NE, they faced six teams who either run the ball well or have a run first mentality. They allowed 3.6 ypr against teams who averaged 4.3 ypr and 107 yards per game to teams who averaged 132 yards per game. NE faced seven teams who are above average throwing the ball and they allowed those teams to average 5.9 yps (those teams averaged 6.7 yps) and 259 yards per game (those teams averaged 230 yards per game). Clearly, Carolina struggles to run against good teams and NE has shut down both, good rushing teams and good passing teams. The jury is still out as to how well Carolina can throw the ball against good pass defenses. For NE on offense, they must be able to throw the ball. They have faced six teams who defend the pass well. In those games, they have averaged 6.2 yps against teams who allow 5.2 yps and 230 yards per game against teams allowing 178 yards per game. Carolina has faced eight teams who throw the ball well. In those eight games, they allowed 6.5 yps against teams averaging 6.5 yps and 257 yards per game against teams averaging 235 yards per game. Clearly, NE can still throw the ball against good pass defenses and Carolina is just average in defending the pass.
As I have perused the net these last two weeks, I have seen different things written that I just don't see happening in this game. Now, these are just my opinions and I could be wrong. I have read things pertaining to comparing this Carolina defense to the Tampa Bay defense of last year. I have to respectfully disagree with this statement. Carolina isn't even the best defense in this game. TB allowed 12 points per game last year and Carolina allowed 19 points per game this year. TB allowed 12 points against teams averaging 22 points per game while Carolina is allowing 19 against 19. TB allowed just 4.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl, while Carolina is allowing 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl. During the playoffs, Carolina has allowed 4.5 yppl against 5.1 yppl (NE has allowed 4.5 yppl against 5.6 yppl). So, I don't see any comparison between the two defenses. I have also read that Carolina will be able to run the ball on NE. I suppose this is because people see Carolina averages 4.0 ypr and NE only averages 3.4 ypr so Carolina must be the better rushing team. Well, they are the better rushing team, but when matched up against the opposing defense, these two teams are equal in the running game. Carolina is a BELOW AVERAGE running team. They average 4.0 ypr against teams averaging 4.2 ypr (although 131 yards rushing against teams allowing 121 because of their desire to rush the ball so much). That is not above average, that is below average. Yes, they have run the ball well in the playoffs, but most teams will run the ball well against the Rams and Eagles, who allowed an average of 4.7 ypr this season. Carolina averaged 4.6 ypr against those two teams in the playoffs, which is about average with their season long -0.2 ypr average. I've also seen things written about Carolina playing better on the road than NE. I looked back to each of the last 20 SB's and compared each teams road games and I see nothing that indicates a better performance on the road, which Carolina doesn't even have, leads to winning the SB. Both teams outscored their opponents by about one point on the road during the regular season and Carolina averaged 4.8 yppl on offense and allowed 4.7 yppl on defense, while NE averaged 5.1 yppl on offense and allowed 4.4 yppl on defense. So, actually NE played better on the road, especially when you consider their opponents.
How will this game play out? NE is allowing -0.5 ypr than what their opponents are averaging. Carolina is at -0.2 ypr. That totals -0.7 ypr and when added to the average of all teams in the NFL, which is 4.1 ypr, you get Carolina averaging about 3.4 ypr in this game. NE has been horrible rushing the ball this year, averaging -0.6 ypr, while Carolina has defended the run better than average, allowing -0.1 ypr less. This, again, totals to -0.7 ypr and predicts NE to run the ball for 3.4 ypr, which is equal to Carolina. Now, Carolina would like to run the ball more, so they could end up with more rushing yards because of more attempts, but the averages should be close to equal. During the playoffs, Carolina is averaging 4.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr and NE is allowing 3.6 ypr against 3.5 ypr. NE is averaging 3.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr and Carolina is allowing 4.1 ypr against 4.1 ypr. I think it was rather obvious what NE wanted to achieve against Indy two weeks ago. With Indy's prolific passing attack, they allowed Indy to run the ball more, while trying to take away the Indy passing game. The end result was allowing Indy to rush for 3.9 ypr but only throw for 4.1 yps. NE will approach this game the exact opposite way. Belichick knows he must stop the Carolina rushing game and force Delhomme to beat his team through the air. NE will go all out to stop what Carolina likes to do best. They have done that all year against teams who either rush the ball well or would at least like to rush the ball. I just don't see NE allowing Carolina to run the ball in this game. And, as much respect as I have for Muhammad and Smith, Carolina doesn't have enough weapons at the receiver position to attack NE. A team like Indy has multiple receivers they can throw at you, as does Tennessee, but Carolina only uses two receivers and sometimes three with Ricky Proehl. Those three plus Deshaun Foster represented over 72% of their receptions this year. Carolina has thrown the ball well during the playoffs, but it's much easier to throw the ball when you can run the ball. They have averaged a whopping 8.7 yps in the playoffs against teams allowing 5.3 yps. But, take out the three long passes (70 yards against Dallas when the defender fell down, 57 yards to Muhammad on a long pass and broken coverage, and the 69 yard touchdown pass to Smith to beat the Rams) and they averaged 6.3 yps. More importantly, taking out those two long passes against Dallas (the only good defense they faced) and they averaged just 5.2 yps against a Dallas defense that was allowing 5.0 yps, which brings them right back to their +0.2 yps above average for the year. You might say you can't just take out the plays you like but my point would be NE isn't going to give up those plays. They haven't all year long and I don't see it happening here either. NE will throw the ball just like they have all year long. Carolina will be forced to throw the ball, in my opinion, because NE won't allow anything else. If Carolina is able to get a lead or stay within seven points, they will probably continue to try and pound the ball. If NE can jump out to a lead, which I am sure they will desperately try to do, they will be able to force Carolina into something they don't want to do.
NE qualifies in a SB system that is now 22-1-3 against the spread, including a subset, which is 17-0-2. NE has allowed the fewest points in the league this year. Teams in such a spot have now played in 12 SB's, previous to this year. Those teams are now 10-2 SU, including TB last year. Those teams are 8-2-2 ats. If our leading defensive team has a win percentage of .800 or better, they are 7-0-1 ats and 8-0 SU. NE won 14 games during the regular season, which are two more wins than the next best team. This has happened six times in the history of the SB since the merger in 1970, where one team has dominated the league. Those six teams are now 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS. The lone loss was in 1983 when Washington lost 9-38 to the Raiders. The difference that year was Washington was allowing over 20 points per game. The other five teams allowed less than 17 points per game and went 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS. Those five teams were the 1972 Dolphins (won 14-7), the 1976 Raiders (won 32-14), the 1978 Steelers (won 35-31), the 1985 Bears (won 46-10) and the 1989 49ers (won 55-10). I know, you say all of those teams were dominating those years and NE isn't a dominating team. Tell that to the 1976 Raiders (who scored 350 points during the regular season and allowed 237 points (NE scored 348 and allowed 238). But these teams dominated their playoff games and NE didn't. Tell that to the 1976 Raiders who won 24-21 and 24-7 (NE won 17-14 and 24-14 and dominated the Indy game). Some people will point out this line is just out of whack, but rarely does the line matter in the SB. Out of the 37 SB's played, only three have ended with a team winning but not covering the spread. The likelihood of this game ending up a win for NE but not a cover is low. The average cover by the winning team in the SB is 12.8 points, with a median of 10 points. You better think you're getting at least 10 points of line value to start using the 'value' statement. I've been saying all year that, for me, situations have proven to be more valuable than a perceived wrong line. And, that 22-1-3 (17-0-2 subset) is a much better indicator than what is supposed to be a line of three or four points. If you think NE will win the game SU, and there is plenty of reason based on the numerous situations I have presented here, then there is a good likelihood they will also cover the spread. When I look at the common opponents, I get NE favored by a score of 23-17. When I use yardage, I get NE by a score of 23-15 or 24-15. When I use just road games, I get NE by a score of 21-20. My power ratings show NE by just three points. Again, the situation is a better indicator than the value. The value is clearly split, depending on what you use. The situations greatly favor NE. By the way, for those of you saying Carolina reminds you of the 2001 Patriots, the 22-1-3 situation was on NE that year. Also, NE allowed 17 points per game as did the Rams that year. This year, remember, Carolina is allowing 19 points per game and NE only 15 points per game. That's a big difference. As for the total, it's tough to call. Both teams present below average offenses and above average defenses. That, in and of itself, should make one look to the under. But, Carolina is throwing the ball better, NE likes to throw the ball 55% of the time and it figures that NE will force Carolina to throw the ball more in this game. Lots of passes lead to big plays, clock stoppage and/or turnovers, which can lead to higher scoring games. Against the five teams that can stop the rush, Carolina games have totaled 21, 54, 51, 44 and 39 points. There have been 28 straight SB's, which have totaled 37 or more points, which also makes it tough to take the under. There have been a few that have ended at 37, which is a key number, but knowing that teams get desperate when down, which leads to turnovers and scores, makes it very tough to take the under here. My final points suggest closer to around 38-40 points and favor NE by 6-9 points, before accounting for the 22-1-3 situation they qualify in. I just don't see Carolina being able to score enough points here. NE and Belichick won't stop passing the ball until they have the game well in hand and even then they may have to continue to throw because it isn't likely they will be able to run the ball. If the total would slip to below 37, I may consider going over. Remember, it's just another game and wager number 114 for me this season. Nothing more, nothing less. NEW ENGLAND 27 CAROLINA 14
I may come back on Sunday with any props that I like for this game. Also, I have been asked if I handicap basketball. I don't during the regular season but have handicapped the NCAA Tournament for the last eight years. I have developed a totals system that I use, which has won the money in seven out of eight years (some sides too). I am currently working on putting together my college basketball database for the regular season and conference tournaments. That is a huge project but if I get it done before the end of the season, I would start handicapping the conference tournaments (which is my goal). So, look for me definitely by the NCAA Tournament and possibly by the conference tournaments. I've enjoyed sharing information with everybody this past football season and hopefully I've been able to help along the way. I know the information I've read on these boards has helped me.
BEST BETS
YTD 59-49-5 +11.00%
2% NEW ENGLAND -7 (No higher than -7 - I don't normally buy off the 7 but for just one game, I would spend the extra juice and buy this down to 6.5 if you have to. I did it in 1999 for the Rams and it paid off)
[This message was edited by Sixth Sense on February 01, 2004 at 02:24 PM.]
